“I’m always cold”

47 million people in Europe cannot afford to heat their homes in winter, according to an analysis by CORRECTIV.Europe. Millions are also affected in Germany. Experts warn this may lead to social conflict.

Andrea* says her son is lucky, because he goes to school – where the heating is turned on. But 48-year-old Andrea, an early retiree, has no such luck: “I’m always at home. So I’m always cold.”

In Germany, 5.2 million people cannot afford heating – many are freezing. This information ensues from an analysis performed by CORRECTIV.Europe based on data from the statistical office of the European Union (Eurostat) from 2024.

A cold home is a health risk, says Boris Kingma, thermophysiologist at the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research: “You can protect yourself from the cold with clothing, but if the living space is not heated, the body can no longer recover from the stress caused by extensive exposure to the cold.” People in cold and damp homes have an increased risk not only of mental illness but also of cardiovascular disease – such as heart attacks – and chronic respiratory infections. All these can lead to an inability to work, reduced wellbeing and even premature death.

“The inability to heat living spaces needs to be taken seriously,” says Kingma. “Not only for the health of millions of people, but at a certain point also for the economy of a country – even the whole of Europe.”

In almost all EU countries, including Germany, the number of those affected has risen since 2021. The current data used in the European comparison are from 2023. For Germany, the figures for 2024 are already available; these indicate that 6.2 per cent of the population is affected. Whilst this represents a decrease compared to 2023, the proportion is nevertheless significantly higher than before the energy crisis (in 2021 it was 3.3 per cent). At 12.2 per cent, Bremen has the largest proportion of unheated homes, followed by Saarland (11.1 per cent), the administrative district of Arnsberg in North Rhine-Westphalia (9.6 per cent) and southern Rhineland-Palatinate (9.5 per cent). The smallest proportion is in the Upper Palatinate (1.4 per cent).

In the EU-wide survey conducted by Eurostat, participants were asked whether their household could afford the adequately heat the home. No fixed temperature was specified; answers are based on self-assessment. Affected people include both those heating their homes insufficently and those who cannot heat at all. The Deutsche Mieterbund (German Tenants’ Association) and the Umweltbundesamt (German Federal Environment Agency) both recommend a minimum temperature of 20 degrees Celsius in living spaces.

The analysis performed by CORRECTIV.Europe reveals the high absolute number of people affected – and the importance of instigating countermeasures. In recent weeks we have spoken to various individuals among the millions of affected. Their stories are alarming: many are freezing out of fear of the next heating bill. Some report temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees in their living spaces. Or that they are forced to cut back on food to be able to afford even a little heating. In addition to suffering physical and psychological stress, some people also report feelings of isolation as a consequence. We went out to visit one of these people.

A cold January day in a half-timbered village near Kassel: Andrea is perched on the sofa in her living room dressed in thermal leggings and a woollen jumper. She is wearing two pairs of woollen socks and has her feet tucked under her body. “Come here my little Smurf,” she lovingly greets her eleven-year-old son, Ben*. With Ben engrossed in a game on his mobile phone, Andrea begins to explain their situation: “It’s worst in the morning”. This is the time of day she airs the house to prevent mould from forming, then gets dressed as quickly as possible. She is only able to shower once or twice a week, but at least with the luxury warm water.

Andrea is chronically ill, hence her early retirement. A letter from the social welfare office confirms this. She suffers from acne inversa: excruciating inflammations repeatedly form under her skin, requiring operations. The letter further references: depression, thyroid dysfunction and a spinal condition. Last week there was a heavy frost overnight, and in the morning, Andrea discovered frost patterns on her single-glazed kitchen window. Her bones often ache from the cold. Since Ben caught colds so often last winter, she resolved to heat her home at least sometimes this winter. But the fear of having to pay extra heating costs weighs heavy on her mind.

“I have no money, no savings – just existential fears.”

Andrea* is a single parent. She is looking for a permanent solution for herself and her son Ben outside the social welfare system.

Some 47 million people throughout the EU, Switzerland and Norway were unable to heat their homes sufficiently last winter, corresponding to 10.2 per cent of the population. This figure has risen dramatically since 2021, at which time it had been around 31 million. The figures are especially high not in the cold areas of Europe but in the warmer ones: regions in Spain, Greece, Portugal, Bulgaria and Italy. Lithuania also stands out.

Why are so many people in Europe – as much as 30 per cent of the population in some regions – unable to adequately heat their living spaces?

According to experts, three factors are decisive when it comes to so-called energy poverty: unrenovated buildings, high energy costs and low income. All three are causing problems in Europe.

Although energy prices in Europe have stabilised, they remain at a high level: natural gas cost almost twice as much for private households in 2024 as it did 2020. After prices rose in connection with a higher energy demand following the pandemic, the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 then catalysed an energy crisis. Groceries and housing have also become more expensive. According to a 2024 labour market report published by the European Commission, real wages in the EU have actually declined by 1.1 per cent vis-à-vis 2019.

“Many people in Europe now have to decide between eating and heating,” says Global Public Health lecturer Aravinda Guntupalli, whose research at the University of Aberdeen focuses on energy poverty.

“I’m conscious of it every day: I don’t live like everyone else. I’m not envious – I just wish I could turn the heating back on. In my opinion, a warm flat is actually a basic right.”

The 61-year-old lives on her own, is chronically ill and in early retirement. Instead of the heating, she is kept warm by her dogs.

“The problem is that the more I pay for heating, the less I can spend on us,” says Andrea. “Groceries have really become very expensive.” She has the prices memorised: a package of own-brand oats costs 0.69 euros, 20 cents more expensive than before. A three-pack of capsicums costs 2.49 euros. She likes to shop for items that are reduced, and always only buys just enough to ensure nothing goes to waste.

When Ben briefly leaves the room, Andrea confides that she feels lonely. “We live a very secluded life.” She used to enjoy going out for coffee with friends, but this is no longer possible. Ben likes going to the movies, but that only happens two or three times a year now, and without popcorn. He no longer goes to the football club either – trips, shoes and jerseys are just too expensive. They scrimp and save wherever possible.

The rising cost of living in Europe is one of the biggest concerns of EU voters. “People are frustrated. This can lead to political dissatisfaction, mistrust in political parties and, ultimately, to instability,” says Guntupalli. The cost-of-living crisis has already triggered protests in numerous countries.

Research conducted by CORRECTIV.Europe also shows that the question of how to prevent people from freezing is becoming increasingly urgent. A political dispute has emerged over the right way forward, however, with Europe now facing the question of how social conflict can be avoided.

Governments have not necessarily ignored the issue though: in Germany, measures to combat soaring prices and recover from the pandemic have already cost billions, according to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs. Measures announced by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the end of 2022, referred to as the ‘double whammy’, included slowing energy prices, subsidising heating costs and reducing VAT on gas and heating. “This involved massive sums to ease the financial burden in the short term,” says Florian Munder of the Federation of German Consumer Organisations. Most of the measures expired at the end of 2023.

Although the German Council of Economic Experts estimates that the enforced slowdown on energy prices, for example, also slowed inflation somewhat, anyone who cannot afford their heating costs today faces a problem: support is much sparser now compared to 2022, but prices nevertheless remain high.

Aid organisations are also feeling the crisis. “We are currently lacking a long-term plan for our work and for our clientele,” says Maike Staufenbiel, a social worker at the Catholic Social Service in Hamm who provides advice to people struggling with debt. She is baffled by the limited availability of assistance for reasons of time and budget: “The reality is that we are dependent on special financial benefits for support. But ultimately, it’s only the symptoms being treated and not the cause.”

In her experience, it is most often those working in the low-wage sector or in part-time jobs, the chronically ill and single parents that are affected. Katharina Drescher has conducted research at the University of Passau into groups at risk of energy poverty: here, too, those most at risk are single parents – like Andrea – as well as the elderly, people living alone and people without a university education.

“How can utility costs be so high that fresh air in winter is a luxury?”

Student (20) has never turned on the heating for fear of the costs. She sleeps poorly, often has headaches, constantly suffers from colds and finds it difficult to study in the frigid temperatures. She often cancels social engagements because she has neither the energy nor the money.

Already during the current year, gas – which most people in Germany rely on for heating – is set to become more expensive due to rising grid fees. In fact, levies are to increase for both gas and heating oil: 55 euros per tonne of CO2 compared to the current 45 euros. For people who are unable to benefit from renewable energy, heating costs will likely continue to rise in coming years.

Within the scope of the Green Deal, carbon pricing is to be introduced across the EU for heating and refuelling from 2027. Energy used in buildings accounts for 36 per cent of all emissions in the EU. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS2) is intended to replace the German fuel emissions trading system and introduce a carbon levy for heating and transport in other member states that have not yet done so. An analysis by the Federal Environment Agency of various studies concludes that carbon pricing of between one hundred and several hundred euros is possible by 2030.

Unlike the price shock caused by Russia’s war of aggression, this price increase is foreseeable. The EU member states, in the meantime, should be working on integrating the ETS2 into national law – and on their Social Climate Plan, which, from 2026, will allow them to access EU funding from the carbon revenues and redistribute this among their citizens and residents. The intention here is to prevent high energy prices from disproportionately burdening the poorer demographics.

In summer 2024, however, the EU Commission already initiated the first phase of infringement procedure against Germany and 25 other member states for failing to act.

It is currently unclear not only what climate policy the next German government will pursue, but also how support for the Green Deal will develop at EU level. The Deal, which was adopted in 2019 under conservative Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, is targeting climate neutrality in the EU by 2050.

In times of extremely high living costs, carbon pricing not softened by support measures is of enormous social and political significance: those who can afford to renovate or install renewable energy sources will be less impacted, whereas those who are poor or renting will have to spend much more of their income on heating costs and will furthermore be unable to free themselves of the dependency on CO2. Across Europe, a dispute over carbon pricing has erupted.

“We are currently seeing attempts by the conservative and right-wing factions in the European Parliament as well as by member states and the business community to undo climate efforts,” says Green Party MEP Michael Bloss. “It would make sense to start working now on establishing programmes for the potential revenues so money can be paid out directly from 1 January 2026. Otherwise, there is a risk of the ETS2 becoming a social trap from 2027.”

“I’d like to spend my time differently, in the garden or doing the necessary renovations on the kids’ bedrooms. But instead there’s just always the thought: don’t take away my warmth.”

In 2024, this father (36) received his first heating bill for the unrenovated house he had purchased: 4,000 euros. The family of six had already been unable to pay their last electricity bill. Andrea, her Sohn and her partner Marcus have synonyms in the text.

Also in Germany, preparations are stalling. Although the coalition government passed the necessary legislation for the ETS2 through the German Bundestag three weeks prior to the new elections, what will happen with the Social Climate Plan remains uncertain: “Timely implementation of the Social Climate Plan will then be pursued by the new federal government in this context,’ the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs stated in response to an enquiry from CORRECTIV.Europe.

Klimageld (climate money) – a direct, one-off payment to the population that the outgoing federal government had announced in its coalition agreement – initially failed due to there being no technical way to transfer the money to the people. Whilst this technical issue has meanwhile been rectified, whether the climate money will actually be paid out now depends on the next federal government after the current coalition is dissolved. The CDU is initially only planning to reduce electricity prices; direct payments could follow in a second step, according to the party’s spokesperson for climate policy.

In Austria, more than 60 projects have already been developed with the support of national carbon revenues. For example, part of the revenues generated from the eco-social price are funnelled into the so-called Klimabonus (climate bonus), a direct payment. Everyone benefits from this – even children.

Since 2022, socially staggered and automated payments have been distributed to every person living legally in the country for more than six months. In particular, this is intended to give socially disadvantaged people, low-income earners and households in areas with poor infrastructure the opportunity to invest in technologies such as heat pumps, solar thermal energy or systems for renewable heating. According to the government, this is intended to “motivate people to switch to climate-friendly alternatives.” But the sum paid out once a year currently consists of the basic payment of 145 euros, plus a regional offset of up to 145 euros where applicable. How the money is ultimately spent is not monitored.

This is also the case for the individual countries. The countries should use the ETS revenue to invest in climate measures. However: “There is currently no review mechanism, the countries are simply expected to stick to the plan,” says MEP Bloss.

There is one key measure that experts unanimously agree is crucial for protecting the climate and the population: renovation. Households which do not emit CO2 are not subject to carbon pricing. And if fewer CO2 certificates are required overall, the price decreases even for those still relying on fossil fuels for heating.

The EU agreement on the energy efficiency of buildings stipulates that building renovations are to be drastically stepped up. This also means serious intervention for Germany, where many buildings require renovation. According to the study ‘Climate neutrality not before 2075+?’ published by Munich-based consultancy firm S&B Strategy, this will cause Germany to fall short of its climate target within the scope of the Green Deal. Environmental protection organisation BUND and the German Tenants’ Association also already criticised the delay last year.

According to Sibylle Braungardt from the Öko-Institut in Freiburg, there are large subsidy programmes in Germany for energy-efficient renovations and replacements of heating systems by more sustainable alternatives. However, it is mostly high-income households taking advantage of these programmes. “It’s problematic if homeowners can renovate and install heat pumps to pay their way out of carbon pricing but renters cannot.”

Insulation of houses is also crucial: “If the insulation isn’t there, the heat just disappears. Even a permanent subsidy for heating costs would just be pointless in the long term in that case,” says Susanne Nies, Energy and Information Project Manager at the Helmholtz Centre. Nies has worked in the field of energy poverty in Brussels and is head of the Green Deal Ukraine project, an independent think tank. Especially in Eastern Europe, buildings are often poorly insulated – and in warmer countries, the infrastructure in buildings is often lacking. “Electricity and heating should not be a social issue.”

Andrea says she watches the news every day and, on the subject of climate protection, says: “We pump everything into the air. We have to do something about it, we have to look after our children.”

The mother has found her own way to look after herself and her son. She recently rekindled an old relationship, she explains, and her and Marcus* are now a couple again. It is still a long-distance relationship at the moment, but one day they will live together in their North Rhine-Westphalian hometown – she is looking forward to that. “I said to Ben that we’ll just stay poor if we keep living here. With Marcus we’ll have a warm house. I can buy Ben trainers and real food. I’ll be able to sleep, and I won’t be freezing anymore.” But for now, she is waiting for spring.

Offers of help: anyone affected by large back payments can contact help centres, where you will receive counselling and possibly support in securing material and financial assistance. In Germany, places offering help include consumer advice centres, the German Red Cross, Caritas and Diakonie.

Illustration and text: all affected people featured in the report live in Germany. We found them primarily through our appeal in the Spotlight newsletter in January and on social media. We also received many more stories than just those included in the publication. These have shown us not only how comprehensive and simultaneously diverse the cases are, but also how far-reaching the consequences are. Strikingly, a significant majority of those who came forward were women. This also reflects the reality: poverty primarily affects the female population.

A note on transparency: we spoke to several affected individuals on the phone and in some cases inspected documentation. The editorial team has access to all documentation relating to Andrea’s case. Aliases are used for Andrea and her family.

“I’m always cold”

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